energy [r]evolution A SUSTAINABLE CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK by Greenpeace

Two scenarios up to the year 2050 are outlined in this report. The reference scenario is based on the business as usual scenario published by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook 2004, extrapolated forward from 2030 Compared to the 2004 IEA projections, the new World Energy Outlook 2006 assumes a slightly higher average annual growth rate of world GDP of 3 4%, instead of 3 2%, for the 2004-2030 time horizon. At the same time, WEO 2006 expects final energy consumption in 2030 to be 4% higher than in WEO 2004. A sensitivity analysis on the impact of economic growth on energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario shows that an increase of average world GDP of 0 1% (over the time period 2003-2050) leads to an increase in final energy demand of about 0 2%.

The Energy [R]evolution Scenario has a target for the reduction of worldwide emissions by 50% below 1990 levels by 2050, with per capita carbon dioxide emissions reduced to less than 1 3 tonnes per year in order for the increase in global temperature to remain under +2°C. A second objective is to show that this is even possible with the global phasing out of nuclear energy. To achieve these targets, the scenario is characterised by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential for energy efficiency. At the same time, cost-effective renewable energy sources are accessed for both heat and electricity generation, as well as the production of biofuels.

Today, renewable energy sources account for 13% of the world’s primary energy demand iomass, which is mainly used for heating, is the largest renewable source. The share of renewable energy in electricity generation is 18%, whilst the contribution of renewables to heat supply is around 26% About 80% of primary energy supply still comes from fossil fuels, and the remaining 7% from nuclear power.

The Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply.

The development of the future energy demand from China is determined by three key factors:
-Population development: the number of people consuming energy or using energy services.
-Economic development, for which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most commonly used indicator. In general, an increase in GDP triggers an increase in energy demand.
-Energy intensity: how much energy is required to produce a unit of GDP.
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